Monday, November 05, 2012

I predict: Romney 51, Obama 48

But Romney might lose even with a "winning" margin that large. 

How could that happen?

Romney's margin in the Republican states tomorrow will be overwhelming.  Obama's margin in the Democratic states will be solid but less overwhelming. (Here in Washington State, I guess 10%, a relative nail-biter. We might even wind up with a Republican governator.) 

If Obama can still pick off two of the three biggest states up for grabs tomorrow -- Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida -- he will probably win. 

He may win those two states by a very slim margin (read: jump off the sidewalk quick, or get trampled by the mobs of carpet-bagging lawyers).  If he pulls that off, by hook or by crook (as the Democratic party did here in Washington State, eight years ago, and as they did in Minnesota, four years later), we might have to put up with an angry lame-duck president who "lost" not by a few thousand votes, as George Bush did in 2000, yet pulled out an Electoral College victory, but who was repudiated by the American people (whom I don't think he likes very much, to begin with) in a pretty resounding manner. 

In which case, we can look forward I think to a lot more imperious sneering, long golf vacations, fewer hurricane photo ops, and policies unleashed from any pretence of either trying to solve our dire long-range problems, or bowing to the will of the people.  After 2010, when Obama lost big yet doubled down on his policies and refusal to work seriously with Republicans, I think we know our man.  This is a fellow, after all, who couldn't even work with Harry Reid.  (Romney shouldn't feel too bad about Reid's announcement that he won't work with a Republican president though -- Reid didn't pass Obama's budget, ignored the Houses' budgets, and hasn't even sponsored a budget of his own, either.  The Democratic Senate shut down three years before Hurricane Sandy arrived, that's how efficient they are.  Reid isn't singling Romney out.) 

So here's hoping Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania see their way clear to electing a new president tomorrow.  And maybe the rest of us can send a few new senators to Washington, as well. 

If my prediction is totally off, I promise I won't delete it.  I'll just check the fridge for any pain-numbing refreshments, then change the subject real quick. 

Postscript: Well, Barack Obama has again shown himself the better politician.  Trillions added to the National Debt.  No plan to reform the Entitlements, even though they are rapidly going broke.  High unemployment.  The Middle East coming to another unchecked, violent boil, the man's policies (in as much as anyone can figure out what they are) in shreds.  No plan for his second term, but to protect policies that he does not dare mention on the campaign trail -- an unpopular, expensive, bureaucratic, and ineffective health care program, and vast "stimulus" spending that disappeared like water into the sand. Partial-birth abortion as a Constitutional Right. 

So how did he win?  As I said, he proved himself the better politician.  Not the wiser, kindlier, more honest, or more responsible person, of course -- for the second time, Mr. Obama has demonstrated how irrelevant those qualities are to winning higher office, if not positive impediments.  Obama won by scaring old people into thinking they would lose their Social Security if Romney was elected, women into thinking they would be forced to be barefoot, silent, and pregnant, college students with fear of losing free government subsidies, and people in general, with hatred of the rich.  (Waving around a plan to raise tax rates on the very wealthy, and pretending it was a serious policy proposal to solve the National Debt, when he knew full well that it was nothing of the sort, which is one reason he didn't push it when the Democrats owned the House.  But as a political gimmick, it seems to have done its job, which was to focus attention on Mitt Romney's culpable wealth.) 

Lies and slander.  Slander and lies. 

Of course, Obama also had a few other factors in his favor, outside of his control.  Americans like to give their presidents a full eight years, if at all possible.  Growth in the Hispanic population gave Obama New Mexico, and probably helped in a few very close races.  A nicely-timed storm proffered the opportunity for Barack to put on work clothes and "look busy," as the bumpersticker puts it, along with a bear-hug and silly flattery from the governor of New Jersey.  (Who might just as well go over to the Democratic Party now, if he continues to maintain further political ambitions.  Well, maybe best to wait a few months, for propriety.)  An obsequious press, which refused to confront Obama with the scandals of Benghazi, Iran, National Debt, or anything else. 

All hail Caesar Obama! 

Sic gloria transit mundi

This, too (and maybe America, as the great power and relatively benevolent it has been) will pass. 


WHU4ever said...

How did you come to that conclusion? I think only Rasmussen is polling a Romney win (and that's only by 1 point). Is this just your gut?

My prediction is Obama wins popular vote but only just. He loses Florida but wins colo, va, pa, iowa, ohio etc

Obama - 303
Romney - 235

Unknown said...

The latest polls from the best pollsters are basically tied. Most of the polls seem to exagerrate the number of Democrats. The enthusiasm is more on the Republican side, though, as is early voting. I can't see Obama winning Virginia or probably not Iowa, but we'll know soon.

WHU4ever said...

Yeah we'll see in a few. The problem is, even if your maths is correct the underlying assumptions may not be (and it's difficult to predict you will actually turn out). So it's a bit of a stab in the dark.